AeroVigil
Blog · Topic

Overflight Risk

17 posts on Overflight Risk.

BlogAug 19, 2026

Overflight Traffic Recovery, June–August 2026: The Fleet Returns to Tehran

Overflight traffic is flooding back into contested Middle East airspace. In AeroVigil's own flight-traffic sampling, the Tehran FIR averaged 52.8 aircraft per sampled hour in the week of 10 August 2026 — roughly six times its early-June low of 8.7, and its strongest reading since the June escalation.

Airspace RiskOverflight RiskTrend Analysis8 min read
BlogAug 14, 2026

Pre-Flight Aviation Security Risk Assessment: The Complete Guide

A pre-flight aviation security risk assessment decides, before an aircraft departs, whether the security threats along a route and at its airports are acceptable for that flight. The output is one call — go, no-go, or go-with-mitigations — backed by a record of why.

Threat IntelligenceOverflight RiskAVSEC Compliance10 min read
BlogAug 3, 2026

Aviation Conflict-Event Tempo, July 2026: Iran's Peak Rolls Over, the Signal Broadens

Iran's aviation conflict-event tempo has crested — its share of aviation-tagged conflict events peaked at 14.3% in mid-July, then fell to 7.1% by the week of 27 July. But AeroVigil's own armed-conflict classification signal did not fall with it; it rose, and broadened across more theatres.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneIran10 min read
BlogJul 27, 2026

How to Read a NOTAM: A Step-by-Step Walkthrough

To read a NOTAM, decode it field by field: the Q-line says what changed and where, item A names the location, items B and C set the start and end times in UTC, and item E states the change in plain language. A NOTAM is a formatted alert about a temporary change to the aviation system.

NOTAMAirspace RiskOverflight Risk7 min read
BlogJul 20, 2026

Aviation Conflict-Event Tempo, July 2026: The Reversion Reverted

Iran's aviation conflict-event tempo did not stay reverted. It fell to about 5% of all aviation-tagged conflict events by early July, then re-escalated to a 14.4% peak in the week of 13 July — higher than the 13.5% June spike. Last month's story was a spike that reverted; this month it is a reversion that reverted.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneIran9 min read
BlogJul 14, 2026

Conflict-Zone Overflight Risk for Business Aviation

Conflict-zone overflight risk is sharper for business aviation than for scheduled airlines: a charter or corporate flight department routes a single tail across many FIRs on short notice. The same bulletin a network carrier absorbs with a standing reroute can strand a bizjet trip the night before departure.

Airspace RiskBusiness AviationConflict Zone5 min read
BlogJul 7, 2026

Tehran FIR on High Alert: Sustained Military Air Activity and Civilian Overflight Risk in Iranian Airspace

Multiple military aircraft from several nations have been detected transiting Tehran FIR in recent days, coinciding with an active Iran-Israel armed conflict indicator. Operators with routes through Iranian airspace should reassess exposure urgently.

Conflict ZoneIranMiddle East5 min read
BlogJul 7, 2026

Ukraine and Russia FIR Military Activity: NATO and Allied Aircraft Intensify Presence as Kyiv-Kursk Conflict Continues

NATO surveillance platforms, allied military transports, and unidentified military aircraft have been detected inside Kyiv FIR repeatedly in the past week, as active armed conflict indicators for both Ukraine and Russian Kursk Oblast remain confirmed.

Conflict ZoneGeopolitical RiskGNSS Interference4 min read
BlogJul 6, 2026

Aviation Conflict-Event Tempo, June–July 2026: The Spike Reverted, the Footprint Did Not

The June 2026 conflict-event spike over Iranian airspace is gone, but the airspace risk it created is not. Iran's share of aviation conflict events fell from a 13.5% June peak back to about 5% by early July — yet AeroVigil's contested-airspace classifications kept compounding, peaking two weeks after the tempo.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneIran8 min read
BlogJun 22, 2026

Iran Airspace Event Tempo, June 2026: A Mid-Month Spike and a Persistent Avoidance Footprint

Conflict-event tempo over Iranian airspace nearly doubled in a single week in June 2026, then reverted — but AeroVigil's contested-airspace classifications kept compounding long after the headlines faded, revealing a persistent overflight-risk footprint that matters more to dispatchers than the spike itself.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneIran7 min read
BlogJun 15, 2026

Understanding NOTAMs & Airspace Restrictions

A NOTAM is how the aviation system tells crews what changed since the chart was printed — a runway closure, a new restricted area, a GPS-jamming warning. This guide explains what NOTAMs are, how the ICAO format is structured, and how prohibited, restricted and danger areas differ.

Airspace RiskNOTAMOverflight Risk10 min read
BlogJun 6, 2026

Conflict Zone & Overflight Risk: The Complete Guide

Open airspace is not safe airspace — a core lesson from MH17 and PS752. This guide breaks down how structured conflict-zone overflight risk assessments work in practice, from SAM-system threat mapping and GNSS interference to regulatory prohibitions, insurance pressure, and repeatable decision workflows.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneGNSS Interference11 min read
BlogJun 4, 2026

Middle East and North Africa Overflight Risk: GNSS Jamming, Military Activity, and Airspace Closures in 2026

Sustained GNSS jamming below FL320, SAM activity over Yemen, and near-zero ADS-B traffic across six MENA FIRs signal a materially elevated threat environment in 2026. Operators must treat active NOTAMs as hard avoidance zones and validate inertial navigation redundancy before any regional operation.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneGNSS Interference5 min read
BlogJun 4, 2026

Cairo FIR Military Activity and Suez Region Risk: Implications for North Africa and Red Sea Overflight

Active military operations confirmed inside Egypt's Cairo FIR—including surveillance aircraft and air-defense readiness—raise the operational risk profile for carriers transiting Red Sea, Suez, and Mediterranean corridors.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneGeopolitical Risk4 min read
BlogMay 31, 2026

What Is a Flight Risk Assessment Tool (FRAT)?

A Flight Risk Assessment Tool (FRAT) is a structured method for scoring the cumulative risk of a specific flight before departure. Learn what factors it weighs, why regulators expect it, and how automated FRATs differ from paper checklists.

AVSEC ComplianceFlight SafetyOverflight Risk7 min read
BlogMay 31, 2026

What Is Conflict Zone Airspace Risk? Overflight Risk Explained

Conflict zone airspace risk is the danger civil aircraft face when flying over or near areas of armed conflict — from surface-to-air missiles to GPS jamming. Here is how the risk arises, who warns about it, and how operators decide.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneGNSS Interference8 min read
BlogMay 31, 2026

What Is Aviation Security Intelligence? A Complete Guide

Aviation security intelligence is the practice of collecting and analysing information about threats to flight operations so airlines can make better route, destination and crew decisions. Here is how it works and who uses it.

Flight SafetyOverflight RiskThreat Intelligence7 min read