AeroVigil
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Trend Analysis

5 posts on Trend Analysis.

BlogAug 19, 2026

Overflight Traffic Recovery, June–August 2026: The Fleet Returns to Tehran

Overflight traffic is flooding back into contested Middle East airspace. In AeroVigil's own flight-traffic sampling, the Tehran FIR averaged 52.8 aircraft per sampled hour in the week of 10 August 2026 — roughly six times its early-June low of 8.7, and its strongest reading since the June escalation.

Airspace RiskOverflight RiskTrend Analysis8 min read
BlogAug 3, 2026

Aviation Conflict-Event Tempo, July 2026: Iran's Peak Rolls Over, the Signal Broadens

Iran's aviation conflict-event tempo has crested — its share of aviation-tagged conflict events peaked at 14.3% in mid-July, then fell to 7.1% by the week of 27 July. But AeroVigil's own armed-conflict classification signal did not fall with it; it rose, and broadened across more theatres.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneIran10 min read
BlogJul 20, 2026

Aviation Conflict-Event Tempo, July 2026: The Reversion Reverted

Iran's aviation conflict-event tempo did not stay reverted. It fell to about 5% of all aviation-tagged conflict events by early July, then re-escalated to a 14.4% peak in the week of 13 July — higher than the 13.5% June spike. Last month's story was a spike that reverted; this month it is a reversion that reverted.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneIran9 min read
BlogJul 6, 2026

Aviation Conflict-Event Tempo, June–July 2026: The Spike Reverted, the Footprint Did Not

The June 2026 conflict-event spike over Iranian airspace is gone, but the airspace risk it created is not. Iran's share of aviation conflict events fell from a 13.5% June peak back to about 5% by early July — yet AeroVigil's contested-airspace classifications kept compounding, peaking two weeks after the tempo.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneIran8 min read
BlogJun 22, 2026

Iran Airspace Event Tempo, June 2026: A Mid-Month Spike and a Persistent Avoidance Footprint

Conflict-event tempo over Iranian airspace nearly doubled in a single week in June 2026, then reverted — but AeroVigil's contested-airspace classifications kept compounding long after the headlines faded, revealing a persistent overflight-risk footprint that matters more to dispatchers than the spike itself.

Airspace RiskConflict ZoneIran7 min read